Warner Bros. and DC Studios' R-rated horror film Clayface earned an estimated $3.5 million in Thursday night box office previews ahead of its wide theatrical debut across more than 3,400 North American locations. Directed by James Watkins and starring Tom Rhys Harries and Naomi Ackie, the standalone feature centers on Matt Hagen, a Hollywood actor whose experimental medical procedure goes terribly wrong, transforming him into the shape-shifting Batman villain. While the $3.5 million preview figure marks less than 45% of the pre-weekend haul generated by DC's Supergirl earlier this year, industry analysts point to the movie's restrained $44 million production budget as a strong buffer as it enters a competitive pre-Halloween frame.

Conflicting Projections and the 'Supergirl' Comparison

Box office tracking for Clayface varies across the industry following its Thursday screenings, which began at 2 p.m. According to Variety, the comic book adaptation is projected to earn between $25 million and $35 million domestically in its opening weekend, though rival studio estimates place the figure between $22 million and $28 million. The Hollywood Reporter notes that Warner Bros. is officially projecting a domestic start of $25 million to $30 million. Meanwhile, Deadline forecasts a $20 million to $25 million domestic weekend after mixed presale signals, while World of Reel puts domestic projections at $20 million to $23 million and Box Office Theory estimates a lower range of $15 million to $23 million.

Internationally, the film is rolling out across 76 territories and is on track to add $20 million to $25 million overseas, setting up a global launch between $45 million and $55 million. On Substack, box office analyst Scott Mendelson noted that the $3.5 million Thursday result aligns with the $3 million to $4 million preview totals of genre titles like Longlegs, Iron Lung, Scream V, Other Mommy, and Birds of Prey.

The initial preview numbers have inevitably drawn comparisons to Supergirl, the last DC Studios title to hit theaters. According to Comic Book Resources, Clayface's $3.5 million haul represents less than 45% of Supergirl's $7.8 million preview benchmark. However, that comparison carries a major caveat: Supergirl's $7.8 million total combined Wednesday fan-event screenings with Thursday previews, whereas Clayface only held Thursday showtimes.

The financial stakes for the two DC releases are also vastly different. As Variety and Comic Basics reported, Supergirl carried a $170 million production budget, opened to roughly $37 million to $38 million domestically, and finished its theatrical run with a disappointing $126 million worldwide. At a reported cost of $44 million, Clayface faces a much lower hurdle to achieve theatrical profitability.

An Unexpected Box Office Battle With Elizabeth Holmes

Rather than coasting to an easy victory, Clayface faces stiff competition for the weekend box office crown from an unlikely rival: A24's documentary You Can See Everything. Co-directed by Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim, the non-fiction feature chronicles disgraced Theranos CEO Elizabeth Holmes prior to her 11-year prison sentence.

During its limited debut across 855 theaters last weekend, the documentary grossed $15.6 million, marking the largest launch for a nonmusical documentary in 20 years and the highest-grossing opening under 1,000 locations since 2006's Borat. The film maintained #1 daily rankings from Monday through Thursday, pulling in an estimated $2.3 million on Wednesday and $2.2 million on Thursday to bring its domestic cumulative total to $25.6 million.

Expanding to 2,600 locations on Friday, You Can See Everything is projected to earn $20 million to $25 million in its sophomore frame. Deadline reports that Clayface holds a pricing advantage, commanding an estimated average general ticket price of $14.65 compared to $12.88 for the A24 documentary. Meanwhile, last weekend's top earner, Street Fighter, is projected to drop roughly 65% in its second weekend.

How Other New Releases and the 2026 Market Stack Up

Several counter-programming releases are also vying for audience attention this weekend, yielding mixed preview results:

  • Wicker (Black Bear): Directed by Eleanor Wilson and Alex Huston Fischer, this Sundance romantic fantasy stars Olivia Colman as a fisherwoman who commissions a basket weaver (Peter Dinklage) to craft a living wicker husband (Alexander Skarsgård). Opening in 1,471 locations, it grossed a studio-record $620,000 in Thursday previews—nearly doubling the $385,000 preview haul of Jason Statham's Shelter—and is projected to earn $6 million to $8 million by Sunday, with a 92% critics score and 93% audience score on Rotten Tomatoes.
  • Wildwood (Laika/Fathom): Director Travis Knight's stop-motion animated feature pulled in roughly $1 million in previews across 2,926 domestic theaters. Despite carrying a 100% critics score and a 98% audience rating on Rotten Tomatoes, the film is tracking toward an $8 million to $9 million debut, a difficult start against a production budget exceeding $100 million.
  • Klara and the Sun (Sony Pictures): Directed by Taika Waititi and starring Jenna Ortega and Amy Adams, the $20 million adaptation of Kazuo Ishiguro's novel saw its rollout reduced from 1,900 screens to 850 theaters. It earned $85,000 in Thursday previews and is projected to make $2 million over the weekend.
  • Ali G: Who Iz I? (Amazon MGM Studios): Sacha Baron Cohen's comedy is playing a one-week limited engagement in 125 North American theaters before transitioning to Prime Video.

The crowded late-October slate arrives amid an upbeat year for theatrical exhibition. According to TheWrap, B. Riley Securities analyst Drew Crum reported that 2026 domestic box office receipts have surpassed $8 billion—up 20% from last year—driven by releases like Spider-Man: Brand New Day, The Odyssey, Toy Story 5, and Obsession. MoffettNathanson analyst Robert Fishman forecasts the fourth-quarter domestic box office to reach $2.4 billion (an 8% year-over-year increase), pushing the full-year 2026 total to $10.1 billion.

Frequently Asked Questions

Will 'Clayface' beat 'You Can See Everything' for the number one spot?

It remains a close contest. With You Can See Everything projected to make $20 million to $25 million in its expansion to 2,600 theaters, and Clayface forecasts ranging from $15 million on the low end to $35 million on the high end, either film could claim the domestic weekend title depending on walk-up attendance.

Do early reviews and audience scores support 'Clayface' beyond opening weekend?

Early reception is largely positive, which could help the film avoid sharp second-weekend drops common to the horror genre. Clayface currently holds a 75% to 76% critics score on Rotten Tomatoes with a 6.6/10 average rating, alongside a 94% Rotten Tomatoes audience score and a 4.5-star rating on PostTrak.

Why is the 'Clayface' budget important for its box office outlook?

At a $44 million production cost, Clayface is a much leaner investment than traditional superhero tentpoles that often cost $170 million to $200 million. Even if domestic ticket sales land toward the lower $20 million mark, a projected $45 million to $55 million global launch positions the movie well to recoup its production and marketing expenses alongside exhibitor shares.

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